Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa4b…37a5 politics 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,560 (-1%) realized −$1,559 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$988per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$74
other 23% +$167
sports 18% −$1,663
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -13.1%
all 108 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -10.8%
10% -17.6% 10% -19.4%
15% -25.6% 7% -27.2%
20% -32.9% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,401) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized−$1,559
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage142d
Avg bet$988
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $573 $572 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,141 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $2,096 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,652 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,155 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $830 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $382 +$1 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $4,181 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 04 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $176 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $368 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $428 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,548 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4,382 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $303 $0 -0%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 07 $1,852 −$1,852 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 131.5 Mar 26 $784 $0 +0%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Mar 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5 Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Magic vs. Suns Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $290 21m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $291 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 26h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $259 27h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $573 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $606 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $607 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $737 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $738 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $818 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $819 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $853 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $824 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $743 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $744 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $977 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $978 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $941 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $942 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $906 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $908 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $703 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $704 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $829 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.80 · official $571.80 (match) · 366 history records