Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa46…606d other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$12
sports 34% −$2
crypto 7% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% +11.8%
≤30d 9 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% +11.8%
≤90d 9 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% +11.8%
all 9 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 44% +11.8%
10% -25.0% 33% +1.1%
15% -32.2% 33% -8.6%
20% -38.9% 33% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$34 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $133 +$8 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$82 -80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $113 +$172 +153%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $51 +$79 +154%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 38m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 19¢ $90 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $135 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $113 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $284 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $102 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 42h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $88.10 · 21 history records