Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa42…023e
crypto · 695 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$80 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$161 · open −$81
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses156 / 490
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)646 / 695
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 21 History 646 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$35
14 days+$218
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $36 $19 −$17 (-48%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 50¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic + OpenAI 90¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? Meta 78¢ 63¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-81%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 80¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 80¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% +$133
tech 10% −$80
world 6% −$12
other 4% +$43
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤30d 646 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 24% -17.2%
≤90d 646 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 24% -17.2%
all 646 -11.4% -19.8% 24% 24% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 24% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 24% -25.2%
15% -34.5% 8% -32.4%
20% -40.9% 7% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.38 · official $63.49 (match) · 1052 history records