trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-69%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Down | 32¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Up | 69¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | Up | 59¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Down | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | Up | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $26 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Jun 14 | $25 | +$1 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | Jun 13 | $25 | +$8 | +33% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Jun 13 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | Jun 13 | $57 | +$3 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +28% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +19% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $1,350 | +$33 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +85% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +49% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | Jun 01 | $2 | −$1 | -49% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $96 | +$43 | +45% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,117 | +$84 | +8% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | May 28 | $1,128 | +$98 | +9% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 78% | 33% | -6.6% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -14.5% | -22.7% | 64% | 36% | -3.3% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -14.5% | -22.7% | 64% | 36% | -3.3% |
| all | 22 | -14.5% | -22.7% | 64% | 36% | -3.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.7% | 36% | -3.3% |
| 10% | -30.1% | 27% | -12.5% |
| 15% | -36.8% | 18% | -21.0% |
| 20% | -43.0% | 9% | -28.7% |