Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa3f…efd8 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$19 (+6%) realized +$16 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +209% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +180% what you keep after slip
Net edge+180%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$13
politics 15% −$24
economics 5% −$11
sports 2% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+179.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +209.3% +179.8% 33% 33% +53.8%
≤30d 9 +209.3% +179.8% 33% 33% +53.8%
≤90d 9 +209.3% +179.8% 33% 33% +53.8%
all 9 +209.3% +179.8% 33% 33% +53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +179.8% 33% +53.8%
10% +153.1% 33% +39.0%
15% +128.6% 33% +25.6%
20% +106.2% 33% +13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +209% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage12d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $130 $183 +$53 (+41%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $42 $18 −$24 (-57%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$32 +1528%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$14 +646%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$4 -38%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 54m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 11d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 12d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.83 · official $251.83 (match) · 47 history records