trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -31.3% | -37.9% | 0% | 0% | -37.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -31.3% | -37.9% | 0% | 0% | -37.9% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -77.1% | -79.3% | 0% | 0% | -38.0% |
| all | 16 | -65.8% | -69.1% | 12% | 12% | -38.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -69.1% | 12% | -38.1% |
| 10% | -72.0% | 6% | -44.0% |
| 15% | -74.7% | 6% | -49.4% |
| 20% | -77.2% | 0% | -54.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $1,931 | $2,457 | +$526 (+27%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 16 | $6,640 | −$2,080 | -31% |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after | Mar 26 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t | Mar 26 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Trump resign today? | Mar 01 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Mar 01 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Mar 01 | $36 | −$35 | -95% |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Jul 12 | $60 | −$33 | -54% |
| US recession in 2025? | Jul 12 | $20 | −$11 | -55% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Kanye name his token Jew? | Apr 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? | Mar 27 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April? | Mar 18 | $4 | −$3 | -74% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? | Mar 18 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Mar 15 | $120 | −$7 | -6% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 15 | $20 | +$8 | +40% |