Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa39…bb64 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$84,061 (+22%) realized +$84,286 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%84W / 36L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$3,107per market
Trades / day158.8pace
Fees−$5,176est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,843
7 days+$3,722
14 days+$12,437
30 days+$51,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$50,921
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.1% -4.9% 68% 61% -5.3%
≤30d 120 +40.6% +27.2% 70% 65% +6.5%
≤90d 120 +40.6% +27.2% 70% 65% +6.5%
all 120 +40.6% +27.2% 70% 65% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.2% 65% +6.5%
10% +15.0% 61% -3.7%
15% ← realistic here +3.9% 52% -13.0%
20% -6.3% 28% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,787) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,106 vs −$1,161 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$7,982
Realized+$84,286
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses84 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5,176
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3,107
Trades / day158.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C CHAOS 34¢ 50¢ $5,187 $7,687 +$2,500 (+48%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 48¢ 50¢ $283 $295 +$12 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $237 $0 −$237 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $3,967 +$1,843 +46%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,030 +$970 +48%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $528 +$317 +60%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $441 +$23 +5%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,021 +$550 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,087 +$535 +49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,062 +$688 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,085 +$485 +45%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,116 +$762 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,019 +$427 +42%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $1,024 +$297 +29%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,093 −$1,085 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1,261 +$539 +43%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,627 +$852 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $790 −$781 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,064 +$373 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,231 +$1,701 +76%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,073 −$1,062 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,092 +$563 +52%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,139 −$1,130 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,082 +$2,494 +81%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1,409 +$586 +42%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,029 +$381 +37%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,088 +$656 +60%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $897 +$429 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,432 −$2,424 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,223 −$3,195 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,086 −$3,050 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,121 −$3,080 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $992 +$474 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,072 +$2,121 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5,163 +$7,837 +152%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7,703 +$492 +6%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,023 +$28 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1,088 +$443 +41%
Valorant: Looking For Home vs TrinitY - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,108 −$183 -16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,205 −$4,120 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $2,069 −$2,040 -99%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $1,345 +$1,112 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $691 +$99 +14%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $60 +$13 +21%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $70 +$15 +21%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $2,155 +$667 +31%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $1,020 +$480 +47%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $364 +$148 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 49¢ $50 59m
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 42¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 49¢ $149 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 46¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 47¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 39¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 39¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 39¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 33¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 36¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 37¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 35¢ $230 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 38¢ $340 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 37¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 37¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 36¢ $234 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 36¢ $940 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 38¢ $386 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 35¢ $392 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 33¢ $1,123 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 34¢ $132 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,981.86 · official $7,981.86 (match) · 2998 history records