Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa39…977f
crypto · 118 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$11,459 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,359 · open +$1,951
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29,610
Realized+$3,359
Unrealized+$1,951
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses56 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions98
Markets (closed)61 / 118
History coverage14d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day242.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 98 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,233
7 days+$2,936
14 days+$3,321
30 days+$3,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $5,976 $6,554 +$578 (+10%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 63¢ 79¢ $1,774 $2,200 +$427 (+24%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $1,424 $1,747 +$322 (+23%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $1,421 $1,616 +$194 (+14%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $1,239 $1,348 +$109 (+9%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 95¢ $1,005 $1,127 +$122 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $965 $986 +$21 (+2%)
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? No 84¢ 94¢ $780 $869 +$89 (+11%)
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 71¢ 93¢ $548 $719 +$171 (+31%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $562 $572 +$11 (+2%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $528 $500 −$28 (-5%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $452 $490 +$38 (+8%)
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 81¢ 86¢ $424 $453 +$30 (+7%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 78¢ 87¢ $377 $422 +$45 (+12%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $362 $420 +$58 (+16%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $386 $414 +$28 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $382 $404 +$22 (+6%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $388 $401 +$14 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $487 $385 −$102 (-21%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 72¢ 79¢ $346 $380 +$35 (+10%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 44¢ $375 $356 −$19 (-5%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 82¢ 92¢ $307 $342 +$35 (+12%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 84¢ $303 $338 +$35 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $433 $312 −$121 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $358 $296 −$62 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 12 $218 +$77 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $400 +$43 +11%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $668 +$182 +27%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $1,043 +$41 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 12 $738 +$58 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,398 +$97 +4%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $300 +$50 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $725 +$12 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $840 +$185 +22%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $311 +$195 +63%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 11 $264 +$54 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,758 +$194 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $616 +$36 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $111 +$114 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $811 +$31 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $2,322 +$275 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$19 -67%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$373 +373%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $75 +$4 +6%
Will John Ternus say "Macbook" 10+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 ev Jun 09 $76 +$14 +18%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 08 $149 +$2 +2%
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 08 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $1,195 +$28 +2%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 08 $130 +$20 +16%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 07 $200 +$60 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $179 +$14 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $776 +$60 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $53 +$167 +316%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $600 +$53 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,383 +$40 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 07 $872 +$100 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $1,669 +$361 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $150 +$17 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$229 +556%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Jun 05 $55 +$10 +19%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $18 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,200 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% +$1,782
crypto 31% +$1,179
other 21% +$1,330
finance 8% −$58
politics 5% +$637
tech 2% +$438
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 18m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $161 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +27.9% +15.7% 95% 51% +2.8%
≤30d 61 +73.1% +56.6% 92% 54% +2.8%
≤90d 61 +73.1% +56.6% 92% 54% +2.8%
all 61 +73.1% +56.6% 92% 54% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover242.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.6% 54% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here +41.6% 30% -7.1%
15% +28.0% 21% -16.0%
20% +15.4% 18% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,609.76 · official $29,608.54 (match) · 3500 history records