Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa38…474f weather 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-7%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate80%20W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$26
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 28% -18.5%
≤30d 25 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 28% -18.5%
≤90d 25 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 28% -18.5%
all 25 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 28% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 28% -18.5%
10% -22.6% 8% -26.3%
15% -30.1% 4% -33.4%
20% -36.9% 4% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 92¢ 90¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 63¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? No 89¢ 83¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$8 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $12 58m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 77¢ $12 58m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $13 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 22h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 34h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 37h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $13 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 10¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $12 45h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.40 · official $66.39 (match) · 55 history records