Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa38…f1a1 crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%145W / 11L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 156 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 156 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 8% -8.4%
all 156 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 8% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 6% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 4% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses145 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $99 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $78 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records