Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa36…64f6
other · 59 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage442d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 −$6 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Dec 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 13 $18 −$1 -7%
Jordan Spieth Grand Slam? May 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$4
other 29% +$2
politics 12% +$1
crypto 10% −$2
tech 5% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $33 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 51m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $29 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $29 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $2 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $24 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $14 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $14 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $22 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $11 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $33 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $37 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 10% -10.7%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 8% -10.4%
all 58 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records