Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa36…26e3 weather 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%95W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$11
sports 6% −$62
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 104 -4.7% -13.8% 91% 4% -10.1%
all 104 -4.7% -13.8% 91% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -10.1%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses95 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage82d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $237 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $246 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $242 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 31? Jun 01 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 25? May 26 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17? May 21 $235 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14? May 14 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13? May 14 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 10? May 10 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 9? May 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 9? May 10 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 8? May 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 3? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 27? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $240 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $248 41h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $248 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $218 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $246 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $206 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $227 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $134 19d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $132 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 20d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $237 21d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $242 23d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $237 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 27d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $240 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 29d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $237 34d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $239 36d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $232 38d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $235 42d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $239 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $64 43d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $174 43d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 44d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 45d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.00 · official $240.00 (match) · 213 history records