Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa34…37b8 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-11%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$168
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 56% -23.6%
≤30d 41 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 56% -23.6%
≤90d 41 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 56% -23.6%
all 41 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 56% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 56% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -30.9%
15% -28.3% 27% -37.6%
20% -35.3% 12% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$25 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $406 −$200 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records