Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa31…2217 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-7%) realized −$113 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%45W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$60
14 days−$21
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$79
other 35% −$132
crypto 5% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +10.4% -0.1% 41% 41% -16.3%
≤30d 108 +7.5% -2.7% 39% 39% -14.9%
≤90d 108 +7.5% -2.7% 39% 39% -14.9%
all 119 +5.6% -4.4% 38% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 38% -15.0%
10% -13.6% 36% -23.2%
15% -21.9% 34% -30.6%
20% -29.6% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses45 / 74
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage128d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$22 +1025%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$87 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$24 +79%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$38 +62%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 +$4 +74%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$21 +414%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$10 +51%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$7 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +107%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
England vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $22 −$6 -29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$18 -59%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 +$10 +20%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $30 +$33 +109%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$14 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$16 +80%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 22¢ $9 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.18 · official $55.18 (match) · 194 history records