trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 0% | -3.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 0% | -3.7% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.3% |
| all | 27 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 56% | 37% | -36.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.9% | 37% | -36.2% |
| 10% | -31.2% | 33% | -42.3% |
| 15% | -37.8% | 33% | -47.9% |
| 20% | -43.9% | 26% | -53.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 50¢ | 42¢ | $300 | $255 | −$45 (-15%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 44¢ | 44¢ | $57 | $57 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | Jun 28 | $47 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? | May 04 | $64 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? | Mar 10 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jan 13 | $3,190 | −$3,190 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Raptors | Jan 13 | $342 | +$258 | +75% |
| Nets vs. Mavericks | Jan 13 | $1,800 | +$1,200 | +67% |
| Lakers vs. Kings | Jan 12 | $3,192 | −$3,192 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Magic | Jan 12 | $3,150 | +$1,350 | +43% |
| Mavericks vs. Bulls | Jan 11 | $2,166 | +$1,634 | +75% |
| Bucks vs. Lakers | Jan 10 | $580 | +$870 | +150% |
| Wizards vs. 76ers | Jan 08 | $306 | +$54 | +18% |
| Ducks vs. Flyers | Jan 06 | $677 | −$677 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Rangers | Jan 05 | $1,764 | −$1,764 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Raptors | Jan 05 | $1,548 | −$1,548 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | Jan 04 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Warriors vs. Nets | Dec 31 | $165 | +$85 | +52% |
| Pistons vs. Clippers | Dec 29 | $126 | +$174 | +138% |
| Pistons vs. Jazz | Dec 26 | $158 | −$158 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 | Dec 26 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | Dec 19 | $96 | +$104 | +108% |
| Kings vs. Timberwolves | Dec 14 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Hornets | Dec 12 | $645 | −$644 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Wizards | Dec 12 | $140 | −$140 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Hawks | Nov 18 | $828 | −$828 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Thunder | Nov 15 | $584 | +$216 | +37% |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Nov 15 | $297 | −$297 | -100% |