Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa2e…6e44 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 33% +$1
crypto 11% $0
politics 9% +$2
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +1.4% -8.2% 49% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage472d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $75 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Dec 13 $9 $0 -5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 30 $2 +$1 +75%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy purchases >14000 BTC May 20-26? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Initiative win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $38 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records