Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa2b…c626 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$366 (+7%) realized +$370 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 26L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$250
other 29% +$104
tech 3% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 65% 60% -1.2%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 65% 60% -1.2%
≤90d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 59% -0.6%
all 73 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 42% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 42% -2.6%
10% -16.7% 27% -11.9%
15% -24.7% 18% -20.4%
20% -32.1% 12% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)73 / 86
History coverage132d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 71¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 +$2 +11%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$15 +144%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$5 +27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 +$8 +37%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$16 +78%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$11 +18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $31 +$20 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $165 +$9 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $137 −$3 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $99 +$10 +10%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $99 +$14 +14%
76ers vs. Kings: O/U 225.5 Mar 20 $83 +$1 +1%
76ers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5 Mar 20 $90 +$6 +7%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 19 $1 $0 -2%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 Mar 19 $140 +$23 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Mar 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5 Mar 17 $30 +$18 +61%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5 Mar 17 $50 +$15 +30%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Mar 17 $80 +$34 +43%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $30 −$20 -66%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 17 $269 −$18 -7%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 15 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 14 $8 $0 +4%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 14 $80 +$10 +12%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Venezuela win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $322 +$5 +1%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Mar 12 $34 +$66 +194%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $181 +$34 +19%
First Round Pool A: Puerto Rico vs. Canada Mar 11 $170 +$53 +31%
First Round Pool D: Netherlands vs. Israel Mar 11 $100 +$7 +7%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $374 +$8 +2%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
First Round Pool A: Canada vs. Panama Mar 09 $166 +$61 +36%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 09 $218 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $61 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $20 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 19h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 19h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $31 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $46 42h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $134 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.35 · official $308.37 (match) · 228 history records