Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa2a…899d world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 31% $0
sports 12% $0
politics 10% $0
culture 7% +$11
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -8.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage297d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $3 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +6%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $46 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $11 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 02 $38 +$11 +29%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 19m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $32 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $5 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $27 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $3 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $32 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $5 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $4 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $31 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records