Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa28…bf30 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$19
other 8% −$107
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×13.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.08 per $1 lost it wins $27.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$4,342
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)3 / 14
History coverage22d
Avg bet$642
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,208 $2,217 +$9 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 60¢ $670 $563 −$107 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $408 $418 +$10 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 81¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,094 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,189 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $1,942 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1,006 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,098 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2,214 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $410 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $852 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $4 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,341.88 · official $4,341.86 (match) · 71 history records