Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa28…c37e
weather · 342 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,741 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$415 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$175
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses212 / 160
Open positions11
Markets (closed)372 / 342
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day282.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 372 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$462
14 days−$415
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 9? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? No 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 9? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 14 $1 −$65 -5152%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 29? Jun 14 $0 −$4 -1056%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 14 $0 +$1 +494%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 13? Jun 14 $1 −$12 -1086%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 14 $2 −$14 -680%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$9 -759%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 2? Jun 14 $0 −$10 -2257%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 7? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 1? Jun 14 $0 −$7 -2671%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +1140%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 14 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +443%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1? Jun 14 $2 −$7 -386%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 30? Jun 14 $2 +$18 +806%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 22? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 2? Jun 14 $3 −$8 -287%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$7 -602%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11? Jun 14 $2 −$12 -660%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 11? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 16? Jun 14 $2 −$5 -248%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +918%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 12? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +2708%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 26? Jun 14 $2 −$11 -652%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -821%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 30? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31? Jun 14 $0 +$9 +2133%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 11? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +477%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -260%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 17? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$7 -582%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$13 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$14 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$7 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $24 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 +46.6% +32.7% 55% 48% -16.3%
≤30d 372 +34.3% +21.5% 57% 48% -12.4%
≤90d 372 +34.3% +21.5% 57% 48% -12.4%
all 372 +34.3% +21.5% 57% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover282.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.5% 48% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 38% -20.8%
15% -0.7% 25% -28.4%
20% -10.5% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.91 · official $174.92 (match) · 3500 history records