Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa28…2d3a crypto 603 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$36 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate74%443W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$84
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$154
sports 4% −$1
other 3% −$15
weather 3% −$1
finance 1% +$1
world 1% +$3
politics 1% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 60% -8.9%
≤30d 586 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 49% -14.2%
≤90d 592 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 49% -14.1%
all 596 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 49% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 12% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 5% -30.3%
20% -37.3% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses443 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)596 / 603
History coverage94d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 17¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -51%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $2 57m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 94¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $2 5h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $2 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 92¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 92¢ $2 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 96¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 96¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 95¢ $2 36h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 95¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 2117 history records