Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FA 0xfa22…3715 world 113 markets active 15h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12,918 (+4%) realized +$12,918 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate96%108W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$2,880per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$276
14 days+$341
30 days+$9,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$921
world 29% +$339
crypto 25% +$12,000
tech 4% −$512
sports 4% +$16
economics 1% +$4
finance 1% +$4
politics 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 11% -4.7%
≤90d 48 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 8% -6.1%
all 113 +3.1% -6.7% 96% 12% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 12% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 5% -15.0%
15% -23.8% 4% -23.2%
20% -31.3% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,984) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$360 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.12 per $1 lost it wins $8.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses108 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage165d
Avg bet$2,880
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22,275 +$22 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18,050 +$41 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14,850 +$150 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,992 +$8 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $8,548 +$9 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $22,055 +$22 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22,035 +$22 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $22,954 +$46 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $185 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $6,468 +$15 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2,637 +$3 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $215 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,907 +$93 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $14,657 +$1,285 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7,180 +$2,734 +38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,839 +$4,999 +73%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $6,991 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 03 $697 +$3 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 03 $1,094 +$6 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $3,487 +$13 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $382 +$14 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $4,595 +$175 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $2,619 −$1,404 -54%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $0 $0 -38%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $2,391 +$275 +12%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $2,357 +$360 +15%
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $598 +$39 +6%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,920 +$130 +7%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $2,632 +$45 +2%
GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1,483 +$40 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $7,488 +$12 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $159 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? Apr 17 $4,253 +$28 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $550? Apr 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $520? Apr 10 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 30 above $530? Apr 10 $549 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $6,460 +$40 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $5,756 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $192 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 24-30? Mar 31 $1,849 +$23 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? Mar 31 $5,437 +$221 +4%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 29 $4,950 +$50 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 17-23? Mar 23 $1,193 +$19 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? Mar 23 $6,004 +$48 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $10,000 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $10,000 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $2,275 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $9,990 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $498 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $3,988 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $995 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 99¢ $60 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 99¢ $357 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 99¢ $77 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $44 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $44 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $2,061 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $2,932 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 99¢ $4,950 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 99¢ $4,950 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 99¢ $2,503 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 99¢ $2,447 47h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $8,538 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,776 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,224 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,055 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,590 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,395 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10,000 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,035 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1133 history records