Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa20…c4d7
sports · 281 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$241 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$246 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses85 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)259 / 281
History coverage762d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 22 History 259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 9¢ 18¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 30¢ 23¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 73¢ 76¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+470%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 60¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 28¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Natus Vincere 44¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 30¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 39¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 82¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Kraken vs. Ducks Kraken 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$4 +69%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $12 −$6 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -15%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $6 +$2 +36%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$3 +134%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $4 −$3 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $6 −$2 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $6 +$3 +48%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $6 +$3 +53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $2 $0 -13%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $5 +$9 +172%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 +$15 +148%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $4 +$1 +24%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 04 $6 +$13 +214%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $5 −$4 -77%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -96%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $6 +$2 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 27 $16 −$3 -18%
Lightning vs. Senators Apr 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Apr 07 $23 +$15 +64%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 19 $42 −$42 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Mar 19 $17 +$5 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Mar 19 $26 +$17 +67%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $473 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $491 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 27% −$15
sports 24% −$200
other 21% −$1
crypto 12% −$5
culture 7% −$3
economics 6% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 0% −$6
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 30¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $1 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 24¢ $1 5h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $1 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 12h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $3 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $3 19h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 39¢ $1 20h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $3 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $3 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 48% -7.8%
≤30d 42 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 47 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 49% -17.7%
all 259 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 28% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 28% -10.1%
10% -21.5% 26% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 20% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.54 · official $101.54 (match) · 679 history records