Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa20…557b
sports · 114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)97 / 114
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 17 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland leading at halftime? No 55¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Haiti 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Ben Shelton 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Türkiye 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 5.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $8 +$3 +32%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $23 −$2 -8%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +161%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $6 +$4 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $2 +$2 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$7
crypto 29% −$6
other 21% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 11m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 11m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $1 11m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $1 12m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 12m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $1 12m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 12m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $1 13m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $1 15m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 15m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 12¢ $1 15m
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1 19m
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1 19m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $1 23m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 27m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $1 28m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $1 28m
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 28m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $1 29m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $1 29m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 12¢ $1 30m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $1 30m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 12¢ $1 31m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $1 31m
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $1 31m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 31m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 31m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 32m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 12¢ $1 32m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $1 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 35% -5.3%
≤30d 97 -18.7% -26.4% 38% 30% -17.0%
≤90d 97 -18.7% -26.4% 38% 30% -17.0%
all 97 -18.7% -26.4% 38% 30% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 30% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 22% -25.0%
15% -39.9% 18% -32.2%
20% -45.8% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.68 · official $24.73 (match) · 333 history records