Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:33:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa1d…c78b other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized +$11 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 164d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$2
world 5% −$12
politics 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤30d 2 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +0.6%
≤90d 3 -24.5% -31.7% 67% 67% -9.2%
all 3 -24.5% -31.7% 67% 67% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 67% -9.2%
10% -38.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -44.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -49.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage164d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 10¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 10¢ $11 12d
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $10 37d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.27 · official $91.27 (match) · 9 history records