Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa1c…0144
other · 721 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$448 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$583 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$583
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses294 / 419
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions8
Markets (closed)713 / 721
History coverage106d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 8 History 713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 58¢ 27¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Guatemala? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 −$5 -23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $22 −$5 -22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -69%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $22 +$7 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -29%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +59%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Guatemala? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 +$2 +87%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$6 +195%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-22? Jun 07 $18 −$12 -65%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$115
sports 33% −$152
crypto 12% −$466
world 4% −$61
finance 1% +$10
politics 1% −$7
culture 0% −$8
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 36m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 26¢ $13 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 79¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 55¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 42¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $14 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 32¢ $5 25h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -40.1% -45.8% 28% 26% -42.1%
≤30d 102 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 37% -27.1%
≤90d 639 -17.9% -25.7% 41% 38% -13.1%
all 713 -15.5% -23.5% 41% 38% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -13.1%
10% -30.8% 32% -21.4%
15% -37.5% 25% -29.0%
20% -43.7% 19% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.76 · official $38.76 (match) · 1879 history records