Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FA 0xfa1c…6ee7 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-16%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$108
crypto 18% +$33
sports 9% +$13
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 33% -22.5%
≤30d 6 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 33% -22.5%
≤90d 6 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 33% -22.5%
all 8 -31.2% -37.7% 25% 25% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 25% -27.6%
10% -43.7% 25% -34.5%
15% -49.1% 25% -40.8%
20% -54.1% 12% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage232d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $171 −$84 -49%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$13 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$34 +68%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $0 $0 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $56 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $44 59m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $44 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 46h
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 198d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.87 · official $54.87 (match) · 21 history records