Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa1c…b3d1 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$62
politics 16% −$30
world 9% −$6
crypto 8% +$33
tech 7% −$33
economics 2% −$3
sports 1% −$3
weather 1% +$3
finance 1% +$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.1% +14.1% 80% 80% +39.5%
≤30d 5 +26.1% +14.1% 80% 80% +39.5%
≤90d 10 +49.6% +35.4% 80% 80% +43.4%
all 57 -14.3% -22.5% 51% 37% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -4.2%
10% -29.9% 26% -13.4%
15% -36.7% 23% -21.8%
20% -42.9% 19% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)57 / 66
History coverage524d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$60 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $29 +$21 +73%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $5 +$16 +306%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 20 $4 +$4 +89%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 20 $6 +$4 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec Mar 19 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 25 $9 +$1 +7%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Nov 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? Nov 24 $5 +$3 +61%
Fed rate cut by September meeting? Nov 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $3 −$1 -18%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Oct 23 $5 +$6 +130%
Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Sep 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Sep 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Buffett say "Trump" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting? Apr 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? Apr 07 $3 +$5 +178%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $5 $0 -4%
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May? Mar 20 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31? Mar 20 $17 +$7 +42%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 20 $6 −$2 -41%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 07 $4 +$1 +19%
Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 07 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? Mar 07 $2 +$5 +236%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 27 $3 $0 +9%
Will Trump attend a sporting event by Sunday? Feb 27 $3 $0 +10%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24? Feb 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30? Feb 27 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? Feb 19 $2 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $106 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 27h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $45 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 59d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 61d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 95d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 96d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 96d
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $7 179d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes $2 179d
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on Dec BUY No 60¢ $12 180d
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? BUY Yes $0 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.96 · official $126.97 (match) · 112 history records