Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa16…1430
crypto · 833 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$991 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$887 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$887
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses475 / 363
Open positions1
Markets (closed)838 / 833
History coverage44d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day68.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 838 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$284
14 days−$691
30 days−$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 66¢ 53¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+70%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$8 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$11 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$8 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$9 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$4 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$7 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$5 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$7 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$812
weather 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 783 -8.3% -17.1% 57% 57% -7.8%
≤30d 834 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 56% -12.4%
≤90d 838 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 56% -13.6%
all 838 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 56% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 45% -21.9%
15% -33.2% 29% -29.4%
20% -39.7% 10% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $9.71 · 3500 history records