Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa12…8aee crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$372 (+17%) realized +$372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$48
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.7% -23.8% 57% 14% -20.9%
≤30d 24 +13.9% +3.1% 54% 38% +0.7%
≤90d 24 +13.9% +3.1% 54% 38% +0.7%
all 24 +13.9% +3.1% 54% 38% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 38% +0.7%
10% -6.8% 29% -9.0%
15% -15.8% 25% -17.8%
20% -24.0% 21% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$46 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage16d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $330 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $230 −$21 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $203 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $205 +$100 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $203 +$41 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 03 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $27 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 02 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 02 $105 +$206 +197%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $53 +$127 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 02 $27 +$152 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 15d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 15d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records