Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa11…5ab2 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$9
sports 30% −$18
other 17% −$5
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% −$7
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 21 -4.9% -14.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 36 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 0% -9.8%
all 47 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 11% -10.2%
10% -15.3% 11% -18.8%
15% -23.5% 11% -26.6%
20% -31.0% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage534d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $38 −$3 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $33 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $126 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$3 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $125 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $158 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 −$1 -20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $127 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $40 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $113 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $67 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $459 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $15 −$1 -3%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
The Citadel vs. Western Carolina Feb 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Seattle vs. Abilene Christian Feb 14 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund? Feb 14 $4 +$15 +335%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 7 or more points? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on January 2 Feb 04 $5 +$4 +70%
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Feb 04 $8 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $5 +$3 +64%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 09 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $38 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $23 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $23 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $35 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records