Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa11…efb7 politics 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%13W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
politics 23% +$2
other 13% +$1
crypto 9% −$8
tech 7% $0
culture 4% −$27
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 40% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 40% 20% -8.4%
all 57 -1.9% -11.3% 23% 5% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -12.5%
10% -19.7% 4% -20.9%
15% -27.5% 4% -28.5%
20% -34.6% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage305d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$2 +11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 01 $2 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 -7%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $11 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Aug 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 22 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $33 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $33 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 187 history records