Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FA 0xfa0e…baa2 other 28 markets active 1d ago coverage 102d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$3 (+5%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate56%14W / 11L

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days+$4

14 days+$4

30 days+$4

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+17.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+119.9%	+98.9%	80%	60%	+41.8%
≤30d	5	+119.9%	+98.9%	80%	60%	+41.8%
≤90d	5	+119.9%	+98.9%	80%	60%	+41.8%
all	25	+29.6%	+17.2%	56%	52%	-1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.2%	52%	-1.4%
10%	+6.0%	48%	-10.8%
15%	-4.2%	44%	-19.4%
20%	-13.6%	36%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses14 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)25 / 28

History coverage102d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	$0	+7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+505%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$1	+$2	+155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$1	$0	+32%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Mar 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 17	$4	+$2	+39%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	Mar 17	$2	+$1	+40%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Mar 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?	Mar 12	$7	−$7	-100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?	Mar 12	$2	+$2	+133%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$5	+$4	+72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$2	−$1	-60%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$2	+$7	+376%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 09	$3	−$3	-84%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 09	$5	+$3	+54%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 08	$3	+$6	+233%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08?	Mar 08	$2	+$1	+53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 07	$1	+$1	+67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?	Mar 07	$1	$0	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg	BUY	26¢	$1	31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	93¢	$3	41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1	BUY	16¢	$1	45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o	BUY	5¢	$1	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	5d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	90d
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2	90d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	90d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	90d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$1	90d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$3	90d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	90d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$2	91d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?	BUY Yes	43¢	$2	97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	97d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	97d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	16¢	$1	97d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	40¢	$2	98d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	98d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	98d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	98d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?	BUY Yes	49¢	$7	99d
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08?	SELL Yes	9¢	$0	99d
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08?	BUY Yes	57¢	$3	99d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	99d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-08?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	99d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 51 history records