Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa0d…72f9 sports 469 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%208W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$59
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$42
other 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.1% -16.0% 43% 43% -18.7%
≤30d 109 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 43% -20.9%
≤90d 468 +3.8% -6.1% 44% 44% -10.1%
all 468 +3.8% -6.1% 44% 44% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 44% -10.1%
10% -15.0% 44% -18.7%
15% -23.3% 44% -26.5%
20% -30.8% 44% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses208 / 260
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)468 / 469
History coverage89d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$10 +188%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$4 +86%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$8 +158%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $5 +$16 +307%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 +$7 +146%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $77 −$76 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 +$7 +152%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $5 +$4 +90%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $5 +$6 +119%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5 +$6 +134%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $5 +$5 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 47h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 36¢ $5 5d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 38¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 6d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $5 6d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $5 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $5 7d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $5 8d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $5 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $5 8d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $5 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.36 · official $43.09 (match) · 714 history records