Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa0d…8c4d
weather · 105 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$378 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$470 · open −$136
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)96 / 105
History coverage9d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day75.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 9 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$599
7 days+$369
14 days+$470
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 72¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $552 $0 −$552 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$6 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $279 +$21 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $57 +$11 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $82 +$10 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $169 +$29 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $272 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 +$231 +220%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $73 −$72 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 −$25 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $590 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$50 +420%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$75 +79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 +$32 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $263 +$34 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $130 −$58 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$308 +748%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$153 +370%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$163 +331%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$77 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $206 −$13 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $101 −$98 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 −$68 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $114 −$111 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $122 −$114 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 −$61 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 +$48 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$135 +956%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $176 +$215 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$325
sports 7% −$10
other 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $5 9m
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $5 9m
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $5 9m
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9m
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots SELL Yes 99¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 28m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $299 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 69¢ $68 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 92¢ $92 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $197 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $279 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 2h
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $82 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $228 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $73 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $169 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $82 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +10.1% -0.4% 43% 28% -2.7%
≤30d 96 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 27% -3.3%
≤90d 96 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 27% -3.3%
all 96 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 27% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 27% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 21% -12.5%
15% -22.2% 19% -21.0%
20% -29.9% 16% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.36 · official $26.36 (match) · 697 history records