Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa09…b681 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,147 (-6%) realized −$1,147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,643
7 days−$2,002
14 days−$1,852
30 days−$1,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,852
politics 0% −$11
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 54% -19.3%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 55% -18.4%
≤90d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 55% -18.4%
all 31 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 52% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 52% -18.5%
10% -24.4% 45% -26.3%
15% -31.7% 35% -33.4%
20% -38.4% 29% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$731) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$492 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage180d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $484 +$481 +99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $657 −$645 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $268 +$332 +124%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $728 +$512 +70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $621 −$224 -36%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $677 −$674 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $373 −$373 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,301 −$1,296 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $968 +$322 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,086 −$1,077 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1,424 −$1,418 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $748 −$194 -26%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $339 +$611 +180%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $535 +$540 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $380 −$371 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,382 +$419 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $437 +$343 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $731 +$317 +43%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $266 +$509 +191%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $650 +$210 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $577 +$158 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $945 −$931 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $147 −$144 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,729 +$453 +17%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $111 +$157 +141%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $193 +$93 +48%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $96 +$59 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 49¢ $293 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 50¢ $191 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $349 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $308 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 44¢ $268 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 50¢ $382 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $621 23h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 58¢ $728 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 41¢ $140 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $17 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $17 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $29 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $56 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $20 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $2 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $2 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $27 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $11 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $2 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $2 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $3 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $3 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $79 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $1 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $85 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $13 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 46¢ $85 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records