Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa05…a3cb crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+6%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -51.2% -55.8% 24% 24% -36.0%
≤30d 17 -51.2% -55.8% 24% 24% -36.0%
≤90d 17 -51.2% -55.8% 24% 24% -36.0%
all 17 -51.2% -55.8% 24% 24% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.8% 24% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.0% 24% -42.1%
15% -63.9% 24% -47.7%
20% -67.4% 18% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$39 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records