Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa02…8b07 sports 703 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,184 (-3%) realized −$1,202 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%433W / 268L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$376est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days−$255
14 days+$6
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$970
other 5% −$287
crypto 1% −$55
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 60% -13.5%
≤30d 194 +3.4% -6.5% 63% 60% -10.8%
≤90d 547 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 58% -12.8%
all 701 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 59% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 59% -11.7%
10% -17.5% 53% -20.1%
15% -25.4% 43% -27.8%
20% -32.7% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$41 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,202
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses433 / 268
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$376
Open positions1
Markets (closed)701 / 703
History coverage124d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 59¢ 81¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $75 +$14 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $201 +$59 +29%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $51 +$38 +75%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$37 +37%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $50 +$20 +39%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $252 +$85 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $534 +$82 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $972 +$58 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $141 +$28 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $523 −$521 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $488 +$36 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$33 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$30 -73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$25 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 59¢ $51 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $75 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $91 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $51 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 100¢ $78 17h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 64¢ $51 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $82 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Cz BUY 20¢ $31 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $51 19h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $73 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $261 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 77¢ $201 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $89 37h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $51 38h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 76¢ $57 38h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 66¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $138 47h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 100¢ $83 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 49¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 60¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 50¢ $51 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $82 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $77 2d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 71¢ $50 2d
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 73¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 54¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.24 · official $68.24 (match) · 1366 history records