Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa00…89ac other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$20
other 49% −$8
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 14% -31.5%
≤30d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 14% -31.5%
≤90d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 14% -31.5%
all 26 +7.6% -2.7% 23% 23% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 23% -8.0%
10% -12.0% 23% -16.8%
15% -20.5% 23% -24.8%
20% -28.3% 23% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage228d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $24 $31 +$6 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$18 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -77%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 14 $18 −$10 -54%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Com Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$40 +58%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$10 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $46 −$10 -22%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $24 +$32 +132%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $21 +$24 +114%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $22 +$20 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $0 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $5 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $11 33h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.67 · official $242.67 (match) · 86 history records