Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf9fe…366b sports 773 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89,589 (+3%) realized +$89,599 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%460W / 312L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$3,515per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$5,068est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$511
7 days−$511
14 days−$511
30 days+$16,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$77,838
other 8% +$13,210
economics 7% +$1,733
tech 1% +$21,663
world 0% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 +21.4% +9.8% 82% 82% +30.3%
≤90d 154 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 47% -4.5%
all 772 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 47% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 47% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 38% -14.9%
15% -24.2% 33% -23.1%
20% -31.6% 31% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$3,039) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,200 vs −$1,402 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized+$89,599
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses460 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$5,068
Open positions1
Markets (closed)772 / 773
History coverage181d ⚠
Avg bet$3,515
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 33¢ 32¢ $660 $650 −$10 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $511 −$511 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10,867 +$10,133 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,271 +$1,029 +45%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $4,593 +$1,407 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $457 +$543 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $788 +$412 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $4,381 +$878 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $9,640 +$1,794 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $1,717 +$485 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $1,099 +$314 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 30 $331 −$331 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $246 −$246 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $565 −$565 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $2,985 +$3,015 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $1,306 +$2,694 +206%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $633 −$633 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 27 $225 −$225 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $235 +$765 +325%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $814 +$1,186 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $276 −$276 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $19,534 +$466 +2%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $5,960 +$8,040 +135%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 14 $1,087 +$1,013 +93%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $26,797 +$6,203 +23%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 May 12 $5,632 −$5,632 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $915 −$915 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 12 $895 −$895 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $7,900 −$7,900 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,821 +$312 +17%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $13,687 +$1,313 +10%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $137 −$137 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $10,598 +$1,402 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $5,075 +$4,925 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 May 09 $2,464 +$2,036 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $10,604 −$10,604 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $7,380 +$2,020 +27%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $4,173 +$5,827 +140%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $347 −$347 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $3,092 +$3,000 +97%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $235 −$235 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $461 −$461 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $397 −$397 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $4,650 −$4,650 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $12,769 +$2,231 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $13,733 +$1,289 +9%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) May 02 $1,981 +$2,019 +102%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $9,000 +$1,000 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 33¢ $673 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $511 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $10,867 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $1,093 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $1,178 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 76¢ $765 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 76¢ $536 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 76¢ $3,292 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon BUY Matteo Arnaldi 45¢ $457 29d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Sergei Pavlovich 84¢ $9,084 29d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 83¢ $1,668 29d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Cody Haddon 78¢ $1,256 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $23 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $49 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 78¢ $70 29d
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Rei Tsuruya 77¢ $465 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Matteo Berrettini 65¢ $788 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Nuno Borges 27¢ $331 31d
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Katie Boulter 20¢ $246 31d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 23¢ $565 32d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,985 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 32¢ $327 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 32¢ $980 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.00 · official $650.00 (match) · 3500 history records