Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf9fd…b710 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,326 (-54%) realized −$9,335 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%72W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,429
7 days+$90
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$9,715
sports 28% +$544
other 14% −$246
tech 0% −$28
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -24.4% -31.6% 26% 26% -8.3%
≤30d 233 -16.4% -24.3% 29% 28% -5.4%
≤90d 234 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% -5.3%
all 239 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 30% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 30% -61.7%
10% -24.1% 28% -65.4%
15% -31.5% 28% -68.7%
20% -38.2% 25% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +81% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$75 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized−$9,335
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses72 / 167
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions21
Markets (closed)239 / 260
History coverage525d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $401 $415 +$14 (+4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+258%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 65¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $162 −$67 -41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-08? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-08? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $3 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $102 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $96 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.98 · official $895.98 (match) · 674 history records