Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F9 0xf9fd…ab4e other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$121 (+13%) realized +$120 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%8W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$73

7 days+$123

14 days+$123

30 days+$123

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+30.1%	+17.7%	80%	80%	+6.0%
≤30d	10	+30.1%	+17.7%	80%	80%	+6.0%
≤90d	10	+30.1%	+17.7%	80%	80%	+6.0%
all	10	+30.1%	+17.7%	80%	80%	+6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.7%	80%	+6.0%
10%	+6.5%	60%	-4.2%
15%	-3.8%	60%	-13.4%
20%	-13.3%	50%	-21.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$77 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$176

Realized+$120

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses8 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage8d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$175	$176	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$116	+$61	+52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$104	+$12	+12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$47	+$68	+145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$27	+$19	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$145	−$144	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$121	+$24	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$82	+$39	+48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$42	+$40	+97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$25	+$14	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$177	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$177	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$116	14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$104	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$114	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$47	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$47	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$27	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$145	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$121	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$82	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$42	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$25	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.31 · official $176.31 (match) · 20 history records