Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9fb…45b9 weather 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-8%) realized −$37 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%68W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$12
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$25
world 11% $0
crypto 8% −$10
sports 3% −$7
other 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.7% -12.9% 66% 66% -12.0%
≤30d 86 -3.7% -12.8% 66% 66% -12.3%
≤90d 115 -9.6% -18.2% 59% 55% -18.7%
all 115 -9.6% -18.2% 59% 55% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 55% -18.7%
10% -26.1% 35% -26.4%
15% -33.2% 7% -33.6%
20% -39.7% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses68 / 47
Open positions7
Markets (closed)115 / 122
History coverage82d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? No 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? No 82¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 79¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? No 78¢ 67¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 75¢ 26¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +17%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $3 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 80¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 79¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 38¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? SELL No 97¢ $2 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.85 · official $23.85 (match) · 290 history records