Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf9f3…6e8e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$31 (-15%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$55
crypto 10% +$24
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.6% +15.4% 43% 29% -22.5%
≤30d 7 +27.6% +15.4% 43% 29% -22.5%
≤90d 7 +27.6% +15.4% 43% 29% -22.5%
all 7 +27.6% +15.4% 43% 29% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 29% -22.5%
10% +4.4% 29% -29.9%
15% -5.7% 29% -36.7%
20% -15.0% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$22 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$13 -87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $77 −$62 -80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $77 32h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records