Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F9 0xf9f3…fca2 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-10%) realized −$18 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown67%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$129

7 days+$79

14 days+$94

30 days+$94

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-25.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-30.0%	-36.7%	38%	38%	+23.1%
≤30d	9	-18.0%	-25.8%	44%	44%	+26.2%
≤90d	9	-18.0%	-25.8%	44%	44%	+26.2%
all	9	-18.0%	-25.8%	44%	44%	+26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.8%	44%	+26.2%
10%	-32.9%	44%	+14.1%
15%	-39.4%	44%	+3.1%
20%	-45.3%	33%	-7.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$15 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$18

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage8d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown67%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	30¢	34¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+15%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$129	+128%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$21	+$18	+89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$19	−$18	-96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$35	−$35	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$21	+$9	+42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	+$15	+78%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$11	8m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	91¢	$230	53m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$101	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	23¢	$21	3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	30¢	$11	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$21	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$19	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$11	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$35	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$21	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $30.23 (match) · 17 history records