Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf9f0…1c1a crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,108 (-12%) realized −$1,113 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$1,114
crypto 46% +$11
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 40 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -24.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -31.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -38.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,114 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,582
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage612d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,020 $1,021 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $622 $621 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $589 $595 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $346 $345 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Feb 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? Feb 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $569 +$3 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $5,019 −$1,114 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $346 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $622 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $590 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,020 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $80 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $81 104d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 99¢ $24 281d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 281d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 281d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem BUY No 99¢ $9 281d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 281d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? BUY No 99¢ $9 281d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $18 281d
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 439 times September 5–12? BUY No 100¢ $5 281d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $7 281d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $5 281d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $5 281d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $5 281d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $50 281d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $50 281d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,582.04 · official $2,581.27 (match) · 89 history records