Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf9ef…ed8d sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+5%) realized +$50 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$24
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$61
other 17% +$88
politics 10% +$21
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.6% -1.7% 65% 53% -6.0%
≤30d 19 +9.3% -1.1% 68% 53% -3.8%
≤90d 19 +9.3% -1.1% 68% 53% -3.8%
all 19 +9.3% -1.1% 68% 53% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 53% -3.8%
10% -10.6% 37% -13.0%
15% -19.2% 16% -21.4%
20% -27.2% 11% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$24 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage13d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $75 +$11 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 +$17 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$19 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$39 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $91 +$21 +24%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $96 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $50 1h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 2h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $75 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $55 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $58 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $13 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 48¢ $12 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $11 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 25h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 37h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 38h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 84¢ $60 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $49 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $73 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 8d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL No 93¢ $112 10d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 74¢ $12 11d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 80¢ $5 11d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 79¢ $20 11d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 74¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.17 · official $51.17 (match) · 48 history records