Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9e3…31dc politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% $0
world 29% +$4
other 20% $0
economics 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 0% -8.5%
all 35 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage333d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $8 $0 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $60 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $17 44m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $17 44m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $7 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $28 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records