Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9de…bd0a other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%37W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$932per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$46
politics 31% −$50
sports 14% +$113
economics 6% −$9
world 3% −$33
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -1.9% -11.2% 7% 0% -10.5%
all 140 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 9% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,454) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$14 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,333
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses37 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage155d
Avg bet$932
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $826 $826 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $508 $508 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $2,905 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5,261 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,164 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $681 +$1 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $878 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $945 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,037 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $3,296 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $3,209 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $4,487 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $3,056 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $735 +$3 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,583 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,980 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,454 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $282 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $492 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $493 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $207 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $826 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,504 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,506 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,300 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,301 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,452 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,455 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,346 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,347 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,731 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,734 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,648 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,163 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $566 23d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,333.19 · official $1,333.19 (match) · 423 history records