Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf9da…7753 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-8%) realized −$103 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$84
other 12% −$22
finance 3% −$9
tech 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 35% -10.4%
≤30d 46 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 35% -10.4%
≤90d 46 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 35% -10.4%
all 46 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 35% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 35% -10.4%
10% -4.2% 26% -19.0%
15% -13.5% 26% -26.8%
20% -22.0% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage73d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Up 64¢ 72¢ $158 $176 +$17 (+11%)
BNB Up or Down on June 19? Up 55¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$20 +232%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$17 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +235%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $196 −$89 -45%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$17 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $85 +$13 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $23 −$3 -14%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$35 +165%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$8 +42%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$33 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$35 +331%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$8 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$2 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $9 4m
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 67¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 66¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 65¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 64¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 5h
BNB Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 6¢ $2 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 6¢ $2 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 6¢ $2 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 6¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.02 · official $179.02 (match) · 276 history records